decision making
Incentives: "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."
The most underused idea in the world. This is another classic from Charlie Munger. It means that if you want to know how people will behave, don’t look at what they say or what their job title is; look at how they are paid or rewarded.
2026-06-20
7 min read
decision making
Second-order effects
What happens next, and next after that? Most people only see first-level consequences
2026-06-18
7 min read
decision making
Inversion: define what failure looks like, then systematically avoid it
Usually, we think forward: "How do I succeed?" Inversion flips it and thinks backward: "What would guaranteed failure look like? Okay, now don't do those things."
2026-06-16
7 min read
decision making
If you are doubtful of 2nd probability: In Decision Tree Thinking Article
Lets discuss more about one of the scenario in our last article
2026-06-15
9 min read
decision making
Decision tree thinking
What is Permutations & probability — Fermat/Pascal. Think in odds, not certainties.
2026-06-14
9 min read